5/26/2023 0 Comments The black swan theory bookLet’s look at three different applications and examples. The concept of the Black Swan has been applied in a variety of fields. Black swan events are characterised by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight. This is how he defined the concept in his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable:Ī black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. In its current form, it was developed by essayist and former risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The Black Swan Theory is a metaphor for an unpredictable and highly improbable event that has severe consequences if it does occur. However, this brought up an entirely new challenge, especially for organisations dealing with risks: How can you predict the seemingly unpredictable? Today, this concept is known as Black Swan Theory. Now it was understood that a single piece of evidence could disprove any claim of impossibility. The meaning of the term changed and it became a metaphor for something that was unlikely, but certainly possible. Until 1697, when a Dutch explorer ran into them in today’s Western Australia. Over the years, black swans became synonymous with impossible events. That was the consensus in Europe for centuries.
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